Thanks for joining me on this trip down memory lane. Credit also to my wife, who edited this original paper when were dating at the time and edited this article 10 years later. For over a decade she has been removing curse words, and hateful comments about Bernie Sanders that fall into a legal gray area (sometimes both in the same sentence) because she is an excellent writer.
Thank you for reading Maccabee Nation! Quick question, if I used an AI voiceover to record these articles into mini podcasts, would you prefer that to reading the articles, or do you like reading them on your phone or computer?
Mr. Crystal, Iwould like to discuss the Hamas attack on October 7, which seems to have caught the Israeli government off guard. According to international press and statements from Israeli officials, it appears there was an underestimation of Hamas' capabilities. Reports suggest that Israeli intelligence had prior information about a potential plan but doubted Hamas' ability to execute it. Furthermore, it was noted that government forces were redeployed from the border to assist settlers in the West Bank, which might have weakened defenses.
At the outset of the conflict, many referred to it as the "Hamas Trap," suggesting that Hamas anticipated an aggressive and uncontrolled response from Israel, potentially damaging its international reputation while sacrificing civilian lives. I recently came across your post advocating for operations in Rafah to eradicate this threat. However, do you not think this might play into their hands?
A recent article titled "Hamas Shift to Guerrilla Tactics Raises Specter of Forever War for Israel" in the Wall Street Journal from May 15, 2024, echoes similar concerns raised by other outlets about the long-term implications of Hamas's new tactics.
Reflecting on the West's past counterterrorism operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen, there seems to be an overconfidence, summarized as "we are beautiful, we are cunning, no one can stop us." Yet, the history of these operations suggests caution.
My deepest sympathies go out to the Israeli civilians and your fallen comrades affected by these events. While I have reservations about some Israeli policies in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, my respect for Jewish history—a history marked by pogroms and discrimination—is profound. This respect makes it even more painful to witness the damage to Israel's image internationally. To be clear, I have prohibited my sons from attending protests that oversimplify this complex situation by equating Israel with terms I won't even write here—this is a nuanced issue involving two traumatized peoples, and it shouldn't be reduced to black-and-white narratives.
I'm not looking to change your mind but rather to gain insights from someone with your experience and background as a former IDF soldier. What are your thoughts on these issues?
Hey Gold, thanks for writing here and sharing your thoughts. First, let me clear that I was an infantry soldier, not an intelligence officer, so my views on this are more academic, second hand insights from friends, or personal observations.
Israel is surrounded by nations that are either enemies (Syria, Lebanon, etc) or that we have uneasy peace with (Jordan, Egypt, etc). Israel collects a lot of intelligence about threats constantly, some are credible and some are less credible. We need to remember Israel is a tiny country of about 10MM people, 2MM of those people are Israeli Arabs (some serve, but that are not required to), and some percent are ultra orthodox religious (most also do not serve in the military). Israel has an active military force of ~150K and a reserve force of ~465K (reserves train once or twice a year roughly). This is a small force relative to the number of threats Israel faces and on a number of different fronts (North, East, South). Because the majority of the army is reservists, mobilizing them is extremely painful for the country. They are not professional soldiers for the most part, they have jobs that are needed to keep the economy functioning.
Why am I going into all of this? The reason is because every time intelligence uncovers a credible threat, they need to make a very difficult decision if they will mobilize some, most, or all of the reserves to prepare for that threat. If they keep calling up reservists for "no reason" then they will get frustrated and some may stop showing up. This is not an easy decision to make and requires intelligence to take risks frequently. I don't envy the people who have to make these decisions and I won't criticize them for getting it wrong when we have no idea how many decisions they got right because the intelligence remains secret.
There were other factors that may have influenced this decision as well. First, there was a lot of civil strife in Israel regarding changes they wanted to make to their judicial system that were controversial. Similar to in the US now, the public was divided and that may have influenced decisions on whether to mobilize the reserves, or may have degraded combat readiness. We may never know, but it is a plausible scenario. Second, Hamas as you mentioned did lay a trap of signaling to Israel that they were largely deterred. More Palestinians from Gaza were working in Israel and my understanding is that the West Bank security situation was viewed as more fragile at the time. A decision was made to move troops from Gaza to the West Bank, which obviously in hindsight was a mistake. Either those troops should have been left there, or additional troops should have been called up to meet the moment.
I believe there will be accountability when smarter people with more information analyze what happened in more detail. Changes will made to reduce the likelihood of errors in the future. Dwelling on how we got here is less important then deciding how we will move forward. There will always be intelligence failures, but how we recover from them and emerge stronger is where my mind and focus is right now.
I hope this answers your question. Thanks for reading and participating in the conversation.
Thank you for your insight. I hope for a future of peace for Israel. Good luck! (Sorry for not disclosing my name, but I had a terrible experience with social media).
I respect your opinion and truly hope I am wrong. This is just the thought of someone who cares deeply about the situation. To be honest, I am not surprised by your response, as I am beginning to understand better what drives you towards uncompromising solutions.
Walk around the streets of London, NYC, or Ontario during a pro-Palestine rally with some visibly Jewish garb on (acting peacefully) and you'll unfortunately be harmed. Not because of your stance on Palestine, not only if you are Israeli, but because you will appear to be Jewish regardless of what you believe. You will start to understand why we cannot compromise when it comes to our sovereignty, which ultimately means our safety.
The inverse is not true. Show up wearing visibly Muslim attire to a pro-Israel rally (acting peacefully) and you will not be harmed. There is no equivalence here. Believe your own eyes and ears, go see for yourself.
There used to be robust Jewish populations in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, all over the Middle East (tens of thousands), now there are fewer then several hundred Jews in those areas combined. Meanwhile 2MM Muslims live with full rights in Israel, there population has grown significantly since Israel was founded. So tell me, where is there an ethnic cleansing really taking place?
You can add Paris, where even before 7 October the security of the Jewish community was at risk. I even heard that many members of the community have decided to move to Israel in search of peace.
Dear Mr Crystal, I am deeply sorry to hear about the recent developments with the ICC and the frictions within your government coalition. Being in a conflict zone, I recognize the duty to support your people and leadership. Like the U.S. motto “we stand united,” solidarity is crucial.
As someone who values moderation and seeks compromise in most aspects of my life (including with my wife), I believe Israel needs strong international friendships now more than ever. Considering the numerous articles highlighting Israel’s growing isolation, it might be wise to explore mediations addressing the concerns of the international community. This seems vital not only for the future of Israel’s Jewish community but for its perception worldwide.
Compromise is difficult but necessary. I send my thoughts with sympathy and concern for future generations. You don’t need to respond to this, as I can imagine your disappointment with how events are unfolding.
I respectfully disagree with your assessment. The UN is a biased and corrupt organization that in my opinion should be disbanded as it is no longer serving any purpose. The US refuses to subject her military to the UN tribunal for good reason, yet others should be subjected to it? In the words of Obi-Wan Kenobi, it's "a wretched hive of scum and villainy." I plan to write more, much more, on the UN as a separate essay at a later date.
I apologize for bothering you again, but in one of your notes regarding the objectives to follow in Rafah, you referred to former PM Bennett’s plan. Could you please provide me with a link to the source? Yesterday, I read Mr. Oren’s article in The Jerusalem Times, and I would like to complete the overview. Thank you for your time.
I don't agree with all Bennett's policies, but the world is forcing Israel and diaspora Jews to adopt stances that are harder to the right because the left has made it clear that either they directly want Jews and Israel to be destroyed or they are willing be silent and watch it happen. Either scenario is unacceptable to most of us.
Thanks for joining me on this trip down memory lane. Credit also to my wife, who edited this original paper when were dating at the time and edited this article 10 years later. For over a decade she has been removing curse words, and hateful comments about Bernie Sanders that fall into a legal gray area (sometimes both in the same sentence) because she is an excellent writer.
Thank you for reading Maccabee Nation! Quick question, if I used an AI voiceover to record these articles into mini podcasts, would you prefer that to reading the articles, or do you like reading them on your phone or computer?
Mr. Crystal, Iwould like to discuss the Hamas attack on October 7, which seems to have caught the Israeli government off guard. According to international press and statements from Israeli officials, it appears there was an underestimation of Hamas' capabilities. Reports suggest that Israeli intelligence had prior information about a potential plan but doubted Hamas' ability to execute it. Furthermore, it was noted that government forces were redeployed from the border to assist settlers in the West Bank, which might have weakened defenses.
At the outset of the conflict, many referred to it as the "Hamas Trap," suggesting that Hamas anticipated an aggressive and uncontrolled response from Israel, potentially damaging its international reputation while sacrificing civilian lives. I recently came across your post advocating for operations in Rafah to eradicate this threat. However, do you not think this might play into their hands?
A recent article titled "Hamas Shift to Guerrilla Tactics Raises Specter of Forever War for Israel" in the Wall Street Journal from May 15, 2024, echoes similar concerns raised by other outlets about the long-term implications of Hamas's new tactics.
Reflecting on the West's past counterterrorism operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen, there seems to be an overconfidence, summarized as "we are beautiful, we are cunning, no one can stop us." Yet, the history of these operations suggests caution.
My deepest sympathies go out to the Israeli civilians and your fallen comrades affected by these events. While I have reservations about some Israeli policies in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, my respect for Jewish history—a history marked by pogroms and discrimination—is profound. This respect makes it even more painful to witness the damage to Israel's image internationally. To be clear, I have prohibited my sons from attending protests that oversimplify this complex situation by equating Israel with terms I won't even write here—this is a nuanced issue involving two traumatized peoples, and it shouldn't be reduced to black-and-white narratives.
I'm not looking to change your mind but rather to gain insights from someone with your experience and background as a former IDF soldier. What are your thoughts on these issues?
Hey Gold, thanks for writing here and sharing your thoughts. First, let me clear that I was an infantry soldier, not an intelligence officer, so my views on this are more academic, second hand insights from friends, or personal observations.
Israel is surrounded by nations that are either enemies (Syria, Lebanon, etc) or that we have uneasy peace with (Jordan, Egypt, etc). Israel collects a lot of intelligence about threats constantly, some are credible and some are less credible. We need to remember Israel is a tiny country of about 10MM people, 2MM of those people are Israeli Arabs (some serve, but that are not required to), and some percent are ultra orthodox religious (most also do not serve in the military). Israel has an active military force of ~150K and a reserve force of ~465K (reserves train once or twice a year roughly). This is a small force relative to the number of threats Israel faces and on a number of different fronts (North, East, South). Because the majority of the army is reservists, mobilizing them is extremely painful for the country. They are not professional soldiers for the most part, they have jobs that are needed to keep the economy functioning.
Why am I going into all of this? The reason is because every time intelligence uncovers a credible threat, they need to make a very difficult decision if they will mobilize some, most, or all of the reserves to prepare for that threat. If they keep calling up reservists for "no reason" then they will get frustrated and some may stop showing up. This is not an easy decision to make and requires intelligence to take risks frequently. I don't envy the people who have to make these decisions and I won't criticize them for getting it wrong when we have no idea how many decisions they got right because the intelligence remains secret.
There were other factors that may have influenced this decision as well. First, there was a lot of civil strife in Israel regarding changes they wanted to make to their judicial system that were controversial. Similar to in the US now, the public was divided and that may have influenced decisions on whether to mobilize the reserves, or may have degraded combat readiness. We may never know, but it is a plausible scenario. Second, Hamas as you mentioned did lay a trap of signaling to Israel that they were largely deterred. More Palestinians from Gaza were working in Israel and my understanding is that the West Bank security situation was viewed as more fragile at the time. A decision was made to move troops from Gaza to the West Bank, which obviously in hindsight was a mistake. Either those troops should have been left there, or additional troops should have been called up to meet the moment.
I believe there will be accountability when smarter people with more information analyze what happened in more detail. Changes will made to reduce the likelihood of errors in the future. Dwelling on how we got here is less important then deciding how we will move forward. There will always be intelligence failures, but how we recover from them and emerge stronger is where my mind and focus is right now.
I hope this answers your question. Thanks for reading and participating in the conversation.
Thank you for your insight. I hope for a future of peace for Israel. Good luck! (Sorry for not disclosing my name, but I had a terrible experience with social media).
I respect your opinion and truly hope I am wrong. This is just the thought of someone who cares deeply about the situation. To be honest, I am not surprised by your response, as I am beginning to understand better what drives you towards uncompromising solutions.
Walk around the streets of London, NYC, or Ontario during a pro-Palestine rally with some visibly Jewish garb on (acting peacefully) and you'll unfortunately be harmed. Not because of your stance on Palestine, not only if you are Israeli, but because you will appear to be Jewish regardless of what you believe. You will start to understand why we cannot compromise when it comes to our sovereignty, which ultimately means our safety.
The inverse is not true. Show up wearing visibly Muslim attire to a pro-Israel rally (acting peacefully) and you will not be harmed. There is no equivalence here. Believe your own eyes and ears, go see for yourself.
There used to be robust Jewish populations in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, all over the Middle East (tens of thousands), now there are fewer then several hundred Jews in those areas combined. Meanwhile 2MM Muslims live with full rights in Israel, there population has grown significantly since Israel was founded. So tell me, where is there an ethnic cleansing really taking place?
You can add Paris, where even before 7 October the security of the Jewish community was at risk. I even heard that many members of the community have decided to move to Israel in search of peace.
Dear Mr Crystal, I am deeply sorry to hear about the recent developments with the ICC and the frictions within your government coalition. Being in a conflict zone, I recognize the duty to support your people and leadership. Like the U.S. motto “we stand united,” solidarity is crucial.
As someone who values moderation and seeks compromise in most aspects of my life (including with my wife), I believe Israel needs strong international friendships now more than ever. Considering the numerous articles highlighting Israel’s growing isolation, it might be wise to explore mediations addressing the concerns of the international community. This seems vital not only for the future of Israel’s Jewish community but for its perception worldwide.
Compromise is difficult but necessary. I send my thoughts with sympathy and concern for future generations. You don’t need to respond to this, as I can imagine your disappointment with how events are unfolding.
I respectfully disagree with your assessment. The UN is a biased and corrupt organization that in my opinion should be disbanded as it is no longer serving any purpose. The US refuses to subject her military to the UN tribunal for good reason, yet others should be subjected to it? In the words of Obi-Wan Kenobi, it's "a wretched hive of scum and villainy." I plan to write more, much more, on the UN as a separate essay at a later date.
Mr. Crystal,
I apologize for bothering you again, but in one of your notes regarding the objectives to follow in Rafah, you referred to former PM Bennett’s plan. Could you please provide me with a link to the source? Yesterday, I read Mr. Oren’s article in The Jerusalem Times, and I would like to complete the overview. Thank you for your time.
Sure, this was a tweet form his twitter. I would scroll around in there until you find it. https://x.com/naftalibennett/status/1786088008187281537
I don't agree with all Bennett's policies, but the world is forcing Israel and diaspora Jews to adopt stances that are harder to the right because the left has made it clear that either they directly want Jews and Israel to be destroyed or they are willing be silent and watch it happen. Either scenario is unacceptable to most of us.